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What Now? A Post-Mortem
So Jack Smith has asked Judge Chutkan and the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals to dismiss the DoJ’s prosecution of the former president, for both the January 6th election subversion case, as well the Florida classified documents case. The January 6th case was in front of Judge Chutkan waiting for a decision possibly following briefings…
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Agree to Disagree
In the current tumultuous political environment, I often hear people say “let’s agree to disagree,” when they realize that they really don’t have any reliable source or evidence for their claims or arguments other than that they had heard it in a Trump rally, or from Fox News or Newsmax, or had seen it in…
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The Election Night
With most polls indicating a very close presidential race -pretty much within their margins of error- I doubt anyone can confidently make a prediction about the outcome of the presidential election (please see How Reliable Are Election Polls for a more sinister view on the predictions made solely based on such polls in general). However,…
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How Reliable Are Election Polls?
I will provide, below, a brief and very basic introduction to the main concepts involved in the polling process, to setup the stage for the main point I would like to make in the last few paragraphs. If you are familiar with statistics and probability theory, you are encouraged to skip to the last few…