By now, the second day after the government shutdown of 2025, we all must have heard about it, and especially the Republican talking points that the Democrats are not going along with their “clean continuation funding bill” so that they can provide trillion dollar funding for healthcare for illegal immigrants using taxpayer money. It is a very clever talking point, and I am sure it roils up many of their supporters into hating every immigrant in the country, illegal or otherwise, which is likely part of their larger-scope agenda.
But the fact of the matter is that the core elements of the Democrats’ funding bill include:
- Health care subsidies: Permanently extends the enhanced tax credits for individuals purchasing health insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace, which would otherwise expire at the end of 2025.
- Medicaid funding: Reverses cuts to Medicaid included in a recent Republican tax and spending bill, amounting to over $1 trillion in restorations for health care programs.
- Limiting executive power: Restricts the president’s authority to withhold congressionally approved funding.
These are not insignificant items, and the talking point from the majority leader that Democrats should sign up to the continuation bill and then negotiate these items with the Republicans is pure nonsense. Everyone knows that no matter how much the Democrats negotiate the above items with the Republicans, they won’t have the power to actually do anything when the Republicans flatly reject any of their proposals. So, in some sense, this is one of the very rare opportunities in which the Democrats actually have some leverage into forcing a compromised approach that at least partly funds the above items.
Among the above listed items, the first one is especially important as the ACA subsidies are set to expire at the end of 2025. Please note that it is not just the Democrats that enroll in the ACA plans. In fact, according to the latest data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and a June 2025 analysis by Statista, ACA marketplace enrollments for the 2025 Open Enrollment Period the following are the top five states in the number of ACA sign-ups:
| State | Number of 2025 Sign-ups |
|---|---|
| National Total | 24,319,713* |
| Florida | 4,735,415 |
| Texas | 3,966,226 |
| California | 1,979,504 |
| Georgia | 1,510,852 |
| North Carolina | 975,110 |
As you see, Florida and Texas are the top two states in the list with more than 30% of the national sign-ups. Most, if not all, of these over 24 million enrollees will lose the government subsidy for the ACA premiums, and their premiums can increase by as much as 100%. I am not a fan of subsidies. I know they are like band-aids and not a real solution. Nevertheless, pulling off that band-aid at the expense of nearly doubling the cost of health insurance premiums for over 24 million Americans, especially at a time when living costs are already skyrocketing, does not seem like a real solution either. The Republicans may keep saying that the Democrats are forcing a shutdown for their own political interests, but quite frankly, if the Democrats stop insisting on extending these subsidies, the majority of people who will suffer from the consequences of allowing the subsidies to expire will be likely Republicans in most red states. Yes, they may not even know that the plan they are enrolled in is actually Obama care. If you ask them, they will probably tell you that they hate Obama care and that’s why they have chosen to enroll in the Affordable Care Act, instead. But regardless, they will be hurt, and they are Americans that will be hurt, regardless of their political leanings.
I know what I am about to say is likely not very ethical, but one part of my brain keeps arguing that the Democrats should just drop their objections to the continuation plan and let the “clean continuation funding bill” move forward. Then the Republicans will have to own the increased insurance premiums for the over 24 million ACA enrollees, and maybe, just maybe, that will be the death knell of the political dominance of the Republican party for the foreseeable future. But fortunately, the Democrats in the Senate either have successfully suppressed that part of their brain, or they simply do not listen to that.
At some point, however, they have to make the decision. Despite the noise that the House Speaker MAGA Mike Johnson is making these days, by referring, e.g., to the hurricane season and the need to fund FEMA, the Republicans, and especially the White House, seems to be actually enjoying the shutdown. Regarding FEMA, the speaker’s argument is nonsensical, since the administration and the president himself has mentioned in many occasions (including during a visit to a hurricane-hit disaster region) that he believes FEMA is doing a terrible job and that it should be dismantled. They actually fired the interim director of FEMA for saying, during a congressional hearing, that he believed FEMA should not be shut down. Aside from FEMA, the shutdown provides an excellent opportunity for Ross Vought to implement his Project 2025 plans of dismantling every government agency that might do anything, e.g., through making regulations, that might hurt the big corporations and the billionaire class, at the expense of irreparable damages to the environment and to the health of the American people.
So, no matter how unethical it may sound to let the Republicans have their way in destroying the healthcare for millions of Americans (however inefficient or horrible that healthcare coverage may be), it may be the only way out of the shutdown. And its end result for the Republican party may not be as pleasant as they currently seem to believe it will be.